मार्च 14, 2020
First, a review of last week’s events:
- EUR/USD. That's it! The world economy is no longer run by governments, banks, or corporations. The economy is reigned by only one "person" named Covid-19. The coronavirus pandemic has caused panic on the stock exchanges, a collapse in oil prices, a drop in production, and border closures. Humanity is scared, not knowing what to expect after a week, a month, six months. Schools and universities, restaurants and cafes, parks and stadiums are empty, and people are advised not to go out on the streets at all. Food and toilet paper are disappearing from supermarkets. All sorts of mass events are canceled, and a joke is circulating on social networks that the conference on the fight against the coronavirus was canceled because of...the coronavirus. President Trump's decision to close the US borders and ban the entry of Europeans sent markets into shock. EuroSTOXX50 futures fell 5.57%, while DAX30 futures fell 4.22%. US stock indexes suffered the biggest losses in the past 33 years. The main indexes of Japan, Australia, India, Hong Kong, South Korea, and other countries reached multi-year lows.
Recall that on March 04, the effect of an exploding bomb was produced by the decision taken at the emergency meeting of the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate from 1.75% to 1.25%. Against this background, the EUR/USD pair soared by more than 640 points, coming close to the 1.1500 mark.
Unlike its American counterparts, the ECB left the rate unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, March 12. Bank Governor Christine Lagarde said the Eurozone banking system is stable and does not require a rate cut. (It is already negative and is -0.5%). But the market was much more impressed by Ms Lagarde's words that the ECB should not solve the problem of narrow spreads. Investors remembered the debt crisis triggered by rate hike in 2011, and both European stocks and the European currency immediately flew down, finding a bottom only on the horizon of 1.1055.
If last year the weekly range of fluctuations of the pair was barely approaching 200 points, this year EUR/USD easily overcomes this value in just a few hours. Last week, at the maximum, the dollar won back about 440 points from the euro. Then a correction followed, and the pair ended the five-day period near the 1.1100 level. This result, in our opinion, indicates that the markets are completely confused, as the pair once again returned to the Pivot Point zone, along which it has been moving since May 2019.
As for the forecast given a week ago, 40% of analysts voted that the pair would reach the 1.1450-1.1500 zone then. And it did it on Monday, March 09. The majority of experts (60%) voted for the pair's return to the range of 1.1000-1.1100, where, as mentioned above, it eventually returned. So, both were 100% right. is it a paradox? No, the coronavirus just decided that;
- GBP/USD. There are two main factors weighing on the pound. The first is the confusion in the oil market and the fall in prices for this energy carrier, which is closely correlated with the British currency. The second is the negative dynamics of the debt market. The yield on 10-year government bonds in the UK continues to decline in comparison with similar securities in the US and Germany. But if the bond yield just falls, the pound quotes are carried like an avalanche into the abyss. What else can you call a 900-point drop in just 5 days?
As a result, the pair reached the values of the first decade of October 2019 and ended the trading session where a week ago the bulls could not even imagine in their nightmares: at 1.2280;
- USD/JPY. The dollar has been rising since Monday evening, March 09, against the euro, the pound, and the yen. Investors are also getting rid of gold, with which the pair has an inverse correlation. As a result, having pushed off from the support of 101.17on Monday, on Friday, March 13, the pair was in the same place where it was on Friday, March 06 – at the level of 108.00. There is nothing strange in such a figure in terms of graphical analysis. The only striking thing is the timing and scope of fluctuations: – first 700 points down in 5.5 days, then the same amount up in 4.5 days. What can you do about it, this is now the new reality;
- cryptocurrencies. "Cui prodest?”, - said the ancient Romans, which means: "Look for who benefits." And it was the benefit for all crypto-gurus, crypto-millionaires and other owners of large volumes of cryptocurrencies. After all, it was they who had been convincing investors and traders that bitcoin, and with it the rest of the crypto market, will again soar to unprecedented heights in the near future. "Bitcoin has become a great tool for hedging currency risks and will soon replace the dollar!"- they had been shouting, urging everyone to invest in crypto-coins, thereby making them richer and richer. So what?
Talking about the spells of these "priests", we constantly warned that before investing money, it is necessary to correctly assess the situation, and, perhaps, instead of buy, open a position on sell – as the BTC/USD pair can not only grow rapidly, but also fall even more rapidly. Which is what happened last week.
If you believe the apologists of bitcoin, it was conceived as a lifeline at the time of the stock market collapse, falling exchange rates and the destruction of economic ties. We are seeing all these misfortunes at the moment, but instead of dragging investors up, getting more expensive against the dollar, Bitcoin is sinking them even faster.
In just one month from February 12 to March 13, the main cryptocurrency lost 58% in price, dropping from $10,340 to $4,300. On some exchanges, the drop was even greater – up to $3,815 and reached 63%.
Bitcoin lost up to half of its value in just one day from March 12 to 13, dragging the entire crypto market down with it, including such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD). The situation had somewhat stabilized by the evening of Friday, March 13, and the BTC/USD pair rose to the level of $5,600. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is only 10 points out of 100 possible, which means that the market is not just afraid, but terrified.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of various methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. The struggle of governments and regulators for the economies of their countries continues. The ECB did not cut interest rates but announced a 60% increase in the quantitative easing (QE) program, which will amount to €120 billion in 2019. For its part, the US Federal reserve is flooding the market with cheap money, under pressure from President Trump who is eager to be re-elected for the second term. The US has launched a short-term lending program since last week, under which the Fed is ready to lend $1.42 trillion to banks every week. This has never happened in the history of the United States. This week, banks have already received the first tranche at 0.255% per annum. This suggests that, with a high probability, the rate on the dollar will be reduced by at least 0.50% at the Fed meeting next week.
This balance of power is not in favor of the dollar. However, a small margin (55%) is still on the side of bears among the experts, they are supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4. The remaining 45% of analysts believe that the dollar will still lose its position, and the pair will again go north. This is agreed by 15% of oscillators on H4, which give signals about the pair being oversold.
Graphical analysis on H4 shows a sharp decline in the pair to the level of 1.0950, and then its growth first to the height of 1.1100, and then 100 points higher.
However, with the ongoing coronavirus panic, super-turbulence in the stock and currency markets, and surging oil prices, any forecasts can turn to dust in a second. And this is proved by the chaos that reigns in the indicator readings on D1, where the green, red and gray colors are mixed.
The main support zones are 1.1065, 1.1000, 1.0850 and the February low 1.0750. The resistance zones – 1.1175, 1.1240, 1.1350 and 1.1500;
- GBP/USD. It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators at the end of the weekly session are looking down. However, the situation is somewhat different among oscillators – 20% of them on the H4 timeframe and 15% on D1 are already in the oversold zone, which indicates an imminent correction or reversal of the trend up. Graphical analysis on D1 supports this development as well. According to its readings, the pair can reach the bottom near the October 2019 low of 1.2200, and then turn around and go north – first to the resistance of 1.2425, and then to the height of 1.2565. At the same time, given the range of fluctuations in recent weeks, it makes sense to designate two more support levels – 1.2065 and 1.1960, and two resistance levels – 1.2725 and 1.2870. Although, perhaps, this is not the limit.
As for the opinions of experts, it was not possible to form one for the upcoming week. But in the forecast for the next 1-2 months, the number of supporters of the pair's growth is a clear majority-75%, the goal is to rise to the level of 1.2900-1.3100;
- USD/JPY. If in the medium-term forecast for GBP/USD, most analysts voted for the growth of the pound and the fall of the dollar, the situation is the opposite with respect to the yen. Here, 60-70% of experts believe that in the next 1-2 months, the Japanese currency will lose its position, the pair will pass through the 108.30-109.75 zone like a knife through butter and reach the 112.00-112.40 level. The next target for the bulls is 200 points higher.
Note that in the coming week, in addition to the US Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate, we are waiting for similar decisions by the Bank of Japan on Thursday March 19 and the People's Bank of China on Friday March 20. Both of these regulators announced their intention to support commercial banks and companies in their countries. And if fluctuations in yuan rates do not surprise the market, a reduction in the yen rate will be a big surprise for investors.
If, when the dollar rate is lowered, the yen rate remains at the same negative level of -0.1%, it is possible that the scales will tilt in favor of the Japanese currency, and the USD/JPY pair will go down again, breaking through the supports of 105.90, 104.50 and 103.15 one after another. The bears' goal is to return to last week's low and try to test the 101.00 level.
And, of course, it will be necessary to closely monitor the current yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds and oil prices, which largely determine the Japanese yen quotes;
- cryptocurrencies. "What was that?"- many traders and investors ask themselves, looking back at the events of the past week. Was it the beginning of the end? Or a game of big speculators, after which Bitcoin will more than recoup all losses? Or, perhaps, people just did not fully believe in a bright crypto future, and in a critical situation related to the coronavirus, they simply preferred to get rid of virtual wealth, exchanging it for time-tested, quite tangible dollars.
The forecasts of the surveyed experts at the moment look rather timid and modest. According to 65% of them, the BTC/USD pair can reach the $6,000-6,500 zone next week. The remaining 45% can see it around $5,000.
But further on the situation for the bulls looks somewhat worse. Only 20% of experts believe that Bitcoin will be able to confidently gain a foothold above $7,000 by the end of March, and another 20% predict the coin will fall to the $3,000-3,500 zone. The remaining 60% are in no hurry to give any forecasts at all.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.